Analysts, however, have highlighted potential problems in Trump’s grand plan. Firstly, such a payment could cost between $300 billion and $513 billion, depending on whether children count and which adults are eligible.
Economist Erica York wrote: “If the cutoff is $100,000, 150M adults would qualify, for a cost near $300 billion. … Adjusting for that, tariffs have raised $90 billion of net revenues compared to Trump’s proposed $300 billion rebate.”
Yes, you did read correctly. Using the above calculations, Trump’s rebate would actually cost the US over three times more than what his tariffs have generated.
Not only that, but the tariffs themselves are facing legal challenges.
Recently, the Supreme Court of the United States heard arguments in cases challenging the president’s use of emergency‐powers law to implement the tariffs. Three lower courts already ruled the approach illegal, and if the tariffs collapse in court, any planned or perceived system resulting in a payout would disappear.
Which is to say that any dividend at all (let alone one to the tune of $2000) is not even close to being concrete yet. Rather, it seems like there are a lot of things that would have to happen before it’s remotely possible.Continue reading…
