If Obama and Trump went head-to-head in the 2028 election, here’s who would win

  • 52% said they would choose Barack Obama
  • 41% said they would back Donald Trump

Breaking it down by demographics:

  • 73% of Hispanic voters sided with Obama
  • 68% of Black voters preferred Obama as well

Perhaps most notably, Obama was the only recent Democratic figure to beat Trump in the hypothetical polling. When Hillary Clinton and Kamala Harris were included, Trump came out on top.

Obama vs. Trump: The Race That Never Was

Obama first swept into the White House in 2008 and secured reelection in 2012. Trump followed with his surprise 2016 victory, lost in 2020, and returned to power in 2024 — making the two men the most dominant political forces of the past two decades.

Yet despite their legacies being deeply intertwined, they’ve never gone toe-to-toe at the ballot box. Until now, at least, in the world of “what if” polling.

Could it ever really happen?

Right now, the idea of Trump running in 2028 — or Obama coming out of political retirement — seems far-fetched. The law makes it nearly impossible, but Trump himself has teased the idea more than once.

As he said: “I’m not joking… there are methods.”

Changing the Constitution would take approval from two-thirds of both the House and Senate, plus ratification from at least 38 state legislatures.

Unlikely? Absolutely. Impossible? With American politics these days, you’d be wise not to rule out anything.

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